Massive power load-shedding from December 26

Massive power load-shedding from December 26
MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN
ISLAMABAD  (December 10, 2010) : Massive power load shedding is to commence from December 26, 2010 across the country due to annual canals' closure and shortage of gas supply to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) well-informed sources told Business Recorder.

On Thursday outflow at Tarbela was 48000 cusecs and Mangla 28000 cusecs which will be reduced to 26,000 cusecs and 15,000 cusecs respectively, which implies hydel generation will be half the present generation of 5333 MW. Independent analysts forecast 3000 MW shortfall during winter whereas officials as usual fudged figures stating that shortfall will be in the range of 1500 to 2000 MW.

"Shortfall could be between 1500 to 1700 MW," said official spokesman of the Ministry of Water and Power. The spokesman, however, did not give any idea about the expected duration of load shedding but independent analysts are expecting 4-6 hours subject to sufficient availability of furnace oil and gas.

According to Pepco dependence on thermal power generation will increase manifold at the end of current month and January 2011 when major hydel power stations ie Tarbela, Mangla and Ghazi Brotha will shut down because of annual canals' closure. Last year, hydel generation had come down to 900 MW due to water shortage and canal closure, which is expected to be around 2000 MW. In addition 1900 MW thermal power has also been injected into the system with the setting up of new power plants.

On Thursday, total power generation was 13083 MW, whereas total demand was 13265 MW ie hydel 5333 MW, Wapda thermal 1562 MW, IPPs 5136 MW and rental 62 MW. Pepco exported 710 MW to KESC. Hence, shortfall has been recorded at 182 MW. Wapda's loans and debt outstanding as on October 31, 2010 were 87.346,668 billion of which Rs 10.004,624 billion are foreign direct loans, Rs 36.771,777 billion are foreign relent loans, Rs 16 billion federal government loans, Rs 6.5 billion short-term loans, Rs 2 billion internal loans and Rs 16 billion Sukuk-I&II.

Pepco has requested Pakistan State Oil (PSO) that quantum of daily dispatches to Gencos and IPPs be sufficiently increased so that furnace oil stocks are built up at the respective power stations to ensure at least 15 days continuous operation of power units to meet the load requirement during winter months.

In accordance with the decision of the Cabinet Committee on Energy Crises (CCEC), headed by Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, High Sulphur Furnace Oil (HSFO) supplies to Gencos power stations and IPPs are being made exclusively by PSO. As per the decision of the committee, M/s PSO is required to supply furnace oil to Gencos and IPPs at 25,000 tons per day. However, according to Pepco, prevailing furnace oil supplies by M/s PSO are merely sufficient to fulfil daily requirement of Gencos power stations and IPPs. As such, any appropriate stocks have been built at the said power stations, which is evident from the fact that furnace oil stocks need to be improved especially at TPS Muzaffargarh, Kapco, Lalpir & Pakgen, Japan Power and Sepcol.